Thin alpha market or high-confidence crowd price?

Not every price deserves the same trust. A market with five users and low volume is an early signal. A market with hundreds of independent users, strong volume, and a tight spread is a much better crowd forecast.

NordCast labels market quality so users know how much confidence to place in a price. A Thin Alpha market can still be interesting, but it should not be treated like a broad public consensus.

Signals we watch

• Unique traders: more independent forecasters usually means a better signal.
• Volume: more trading makes prices harder to move casually.
• Spread: tighter prices usually mean better liquidity.
• Concentration: if one user dominates, the market is less representative.
• Stability: violent swings can mean new information, but also shallow liquidity.